JERUSALEN (AP) — Con escaso tiempo de aviso, Israel ha lanzado una ofensiva aérea devastadora contra el grupo miliciano Hamas que gobierna la Franja de Gaza. A continuación un vistazo a las causas de la nueva crisis de violencia, los objetivos de los bandos en conflicto y el posible desenlace:

ATAQUE RELAMPAGO

Israel lanzó el 14 de noviembre su ofensiva con una sorpresiva operación aérea en la que eliminó al oscuro jefe del ala militar de Hamas. Desde entonces, Israel ha efectuado cientos de incursiones en lo que describe como una campaña sistemática para frenar años de ataques con cohetes disparados desde Gaza. Aunque el estado israelí asegura que ha infligido serios daños, persiste el lanzamiento diario de decenas de cohetes desde Gaza.

¿POR QUE AHORA?

Israel lanzó la ofensiva en reacción a los ataques con cohetes disparados durante días desde Gaza, incluido uno fuera de lo común en el que un misil dio contra un jeep militar israelí con resultado de cuatro soldados heridos. Sin embargo, la actual operación fue planeada durante años. Desde la anterior ofensiva israelí de hace cuatro años, Hamas reabasteció sus arsenales con armas más modernas y poderosas traídas de contrabando desde Egipto por túneles subterráneos. Tras la calma que siguió a la anterior ofensiva israelí, el lanzamiento de cohetes se intensificó de manera constante en los últimos dos años. El mando militar israelí afirma que más de 700 cohetes fueron disparados este año contra Israel antes de que el país lanzara su ofensiva la semana pasada. En este contexto, las autoridades israelíes han dicho que sólo era cuestión de tiempo para que estallara la nueva ronda de conflicto.

LEE LOS COMENTARIOS A ESTA NOTA Y AGREGA EL TUYO


EL CAMPO DE BATALLA


Hamas se apoderó hace cinco años del control de Gaza, una franja de tierra densamente poblada entre el sur de Israel y el desierto del Sinaí de Egipto. Hamas arrebató el poder en la Franja de Gaza al movimiento rival Fatah del presidente palestino Mahmud Abbas. Hamas, grupo miliciano que tiene jurada la destrucción de Israel, ha acumulado un arsenal de cohetes con capacidad para alcanzar a casi la mitad de la población de Israel.


¿POR QUE DISPARAR COHETES?


Los milicianos palestinos, dirigidos por Hamas, afirman que el lanzamiento de cohetes es una respuesta legítima a los continuos ataques israelíes. También afirman que resisten la ocupación del territorio. Con su retiro de Gaza en 2005, Israel puso fin a una ocupación militar que había durado 38 años. Sin embargo, ha mantenido el bloqueo del territorio en una medida que considera necesaria para impedir el contrabando de armas. En el turbio mundo de la política en Gaza, lo ataques también exhiben las rivalidades internas entre grupos ansiosos por mostrar su capacidad militar extremista. El primer ministro israelí, Benjamin Netanyahu, dice que ningún país toleraría repetidos ataques con misiles contra sus civiles.


ACCIONES PELIGROSAS


La lucha prolongada conlleva grandes riesgos para ambos bandos. Mientras Israel mantenga su ofensiva israelí, posiblemente aumentara la cifra de palestinos civiles fallecidos, escenario que podría suscitar de inmediato las críticas internacionales.


La anterior ofensiva israelí dejó cientos de civiles muertos y se ganó la condena internacional y acusaciones de crímenes de guerra. Si continua el lanzamiento de cohetes, Hamas aumenta el peligro de ser blanco de ataques israelíes, incluida una posible ofensiva terrestre. Muy conscientes de estos riesgos, ambos bandos han emprendido contactos a través de mediadores para concertar un alto el fuego.

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  • PALESTINIAN-ISRAEL-GAZA-CONFLICT

    Birzeit University students takes cover behind the university's sign during clashes with Israeli soldiers at the Atara checkpoint close to the university as they protest against Israel's military action on the Gaza Strip, on November 19, 2012. Israeli air strikes across the Gaza Strip killed 13 people, raising the Palestinian death toll to 90 as Israel's relentless air campaign entered its sixth day. AFP PHOTO / ABBAS MOMANI (Photo credit should read ABBAS MOMANI/AFP/Getty Images)

  • Israeli Troops Continue To Gather On Border As UN Call For Truce

    ISRAEL/GAZA BORDER - ISRAEL - NOVEMBER 19: Israeli artillery shells attack a target in the Gaza Strip on November 19, 2012 on Israel's border with the Gaza Strip. According to reports November 19, 2012, at least 90 Palestinians have been killed and more than 700 wounded during the Israeli offensive in the Gaza Strip. (Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)

  • Israeli Troops Continue To Gather On Border As UN Call For Truce

    ISRAEL/GAZA BORDER - ISRAEL - NOVEMBER 19: Israeli artillery shells attack a target in the Gaza Strip on November 19, 2012 on Israel's border with the Gaza Strip. According to reports November 19, 2012, at least 90 Palestinians have been killed and more than 700 wounded during the Israeli offensive in the Gaza Strip. (Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)

  • Palestinians hurry away from a damaged building after an Israeli air strike in Gaza City, Sunday, Nov. 18, 2012. Israel widened the range of targets in its Gaza offensive Sunday, striking more than a dozen homes of suspected Hamas militants and two media offices, according to security officials and witnesses. The attacks also damaged adjacent houses, killing seven civilians, including five children, health officials said. (AP Photo/Adel Hana)

  • Israeli Troops Continue To Gather On Border As Ceasefire Talks Are Sought

    ISRAEL/GAZA BORDER - ISRAEL - NOVEMBER 20: (ISRAEL OUT) Israeli soldiers prepare weapons and vehicles in a deployment area as the conflict between Palestine and Gaza enters its seventh day on November 20, 2012 on Israel's border with the Gaza Strip. Hamas militants and Israel are continuing talks aimed at a ceasefire as the death toll in Gaza reaches over 100 with three Israelis also having been killed by rockets fired by Palestinian militants. (Photo by Lior Mizrahi/Getty Images)

  • The sun rises as an Israeli soldier washes his teeth atop a tank that he slept on, at a staging area near the Israel Gaza Strip Border, southern Israel, early Tuesday, Nov. 20, 2012. On Tuesday, grieving Gazans were burying militants and civilians killed in ongoing Israeli airstrikes, and barrages of rockets from Gaza sent terrified Israelis scurrying to take cover. Efforts to end a week-old convulsion of Israeli-Palestinian violence drew in the world's top diplomats Tuesday, with U.S. President Barack Obama dispatching his secretary of state to the region on an emergency mission and the U.N. chief appealing from Cairo for an immediate cease-fire. (AP Photo/Lefteris Pitarakis)

  • Palestinian firefighters try to extinguish a fire on the National Islamic Bank, destroyed overnight in an Israeli strike, in Gaza City Tuesday, Nov. 20, 2012. Early Tuesday, Israeli aircraft targeted another Hamas symbol of power, battering the headquarters of the bank senior Hamas officials set up to sidestep international sanctions on the militant group's rule. (AP Photo/Ashraf Amra)

  • Smoke and fire are seen from an explosion by a high rise housing media organizations in Gaza City, Monday, Nov. 19, 2012. It's the Israel's military second strike on the building in two days. The Hamas TV station, Al Aqsa, is located on the top floor. (AP Photo/Hatem Moussa)

  • Smoke and fire are seen from an explosion by a high rise housing media organizations in Gaza City, Monday, Nov. 19, 2012. It's the Israel's military second strike on the building in two days. The Hamas TV station, Al Aqsa, is located on the top floor. (AP Photo/Hatem Moussa)

  • Israeli soldiers lie on the ground as an Iron Dome missile is launched near the city of Ashdod, Israel, Monday Nov 19. 2012. Israeli aircraft struck crowded areas in the Gaza Strip and killed a senior militant with a missile strike on a media center Monday, driving up the Palestinian death toll to 96, as Israel broadened its targets in the 6-day-old offensive meant to quell Hamas rocket fire on Israel. (AP Photo/Moti Milrod) ISRAEL OUT

  • The dead body of a Palestinian woman from the Abdel Aal family is pulled out from the rubble after the family house collapsed during an Israeli forces strike in the Tufah neighbourhood, Gaza City, Sunday, Nov. 18, 2012. The Israeli military widened its range of targets in the Gaza Strip on Sunday to include the media operations of the Palestinian territory's Hamas rulers, sending its aircraft to attack two buildings used by both Hamas and foreign media outlets. (AP Photo/Majed Hamdan)

  • The dead body of a Palestinian woman from the Abdel Aal family is pulled out from the rubble after the family house collapsed during an Israeli forces strike in the Tufah neighborhood, Gaza City, Sunday, Nov. 18, 2012. The Israeli military widened its range of targets in the Gaza Strip on Sunday to include the media operations of the Palestinian territory's Hamas rulers, sending its aircraft to attack two buildings used by both Hamas and foreign media outlets. (AP Photo/Bernat Armangue)

  • Osama Abdel Aal is rescued after his family house collapsed during an Israeli forces strike in the Tufah neighborhood, Gaza City, Sunday, Nov. 18, 2012. The Israeli military widened its range of targets in the Gaza Strip on Sunday to include the media operations of the Palestinian territory's Hamas rulers, sending its aircraft to attack two buildings used by both Hamas and foreign media outlets. (AP Photo/Bernat Armangue)

  • A member of the Abdel Aal family is rescued after his family house collapsed during an Israeli forces strike in the Tufah neighborhood, Gaza City, Sunday, Nov. 18, 2012. The Israeli military widened its range of targets in the Gaza Strip on Sunday to include the media operations of the Palestinian territory's Hamas rulers, sending its aircraft to attack two buildings used by both Hamas and foreign media outlets. (AP Photo/Bernat Armangue)

  • A Palestinian woman walks past a building hit by an Israeli air strike in Gaza City, Sunday, Nov. 18, 2012. The Israeli military widened its range of targets in the Gaza Strip on Sunday to include the media operations of the Palestinian territory's Hamas rulers, sending its aircraft to attack two buildings used by both Hamas and foreign media outlets. (AP Photo/Adel Hana)

  • Explosion and smoke rise following an Israeli strike in Gaza City, Saturday, Nov. 17, 2012. Israel bombarded the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip with more than 180 airstrikes early Saturday, the military said. The new attacks followed an unprecedented rocket strike aimed at the contested holy city of Jerusalem that raised the stakes in Israel's violent confrontation with Palestinian militants. (AP Photo/Hatem Moussa)

  • Smoke rises after an Israeli forces strike in Gaza City, Sunday, Nov. 18, 2012. The Israeli military widened its range of targets in the Gaza Strip on Sunday to include the media operations of the Palestinian territory's Hamas rulers, sending its aircraft to attack two buildings used by both Hamas and foreign media outlets. (AP Photo/Bernat Armangue)

  • Smoke rises following an Israeli attack on smuggling tunnels on the border between Egypt and Rafah, southern Gaza Strip, Monday, Nov. 19, 2012. (AP Photo/Eyad Baba)

  • PALESTINIAN-ISRAEL-CONFLICT-GAZA

    Palestinian firefighters and rescue personnel work at a blast site following an Israeli air raid in Gaza City on November 17, 2012. Israeli air strikes hit the cabinet headquarters of Gaza's Hamas government, the group said early on November 17, with eyewitnesses reporting extensive damage to the building. AFP PHOTO/MARCO LONGARI (Photo credit should read MARCO LONGARI/AFP/Getty Images)

  • People look at a wreckage of the car in which was killed Ahmed Jabari, head of the Hamas military wing in Gaza City, Wednesday, Nov. 14, 2012. (AP Photo/Adel Hana)

  • People look at a wreckage of the car in which was killed Ahmed Jabari, head of the Hamas military wing in Gaza City, Wednesday, Nov. 14, 2012. (AP Photo/Adel Hana)

  • In this Sunday, March 11, 2012 file photo, a rocket is launched from the Israeli anti-missile system known as "Iron Dome" in order to intercept a rocket fired by Palestinian militants from the Gaza Strip in Ashdod, Israel. (AP Photo/Ariel Schalit, file)

  • Ahmed Jabari

    Palestinian security forces wheel into a hospital the body of Ahmed Jabari, head of the Hamas military wing, in Gaza City, Wednesday, Nov. 14, 2012. (AP Photo/Hatem Moussa)

  • Ahmed Jabari

    Palestinian security forces wheel into a hospital the body of Ahmed Jabari, head of the Hamas military wing, in Gaza City, Wednesday, Nov. 14, 2012. (AP Photo/Hatem Moussa)

  • Israelis soldiers run to a rocket shelter as a siren sounds signaling an attack coming from the nearby Gaza Strip in Neva settlement, near the Israel-Egypt border, Wednesday, Nov. 14, 2012. (AP Photo/Tsafrir Abayov)

  • Palestinian men react at hospital after the body of Ahmed Jabari, head of the Hamas military wing, was brought, in Gaza City, Wednesday, Nov. 14, 2012. (AP Photo/Hatem Moussa)

  • Israeli soldiers and civilians run to a rocket shelter as a siren sounds signaling an attack coming from the nearby Gaza Strip in Neva settlement, near the Israel-Egypt border, Wednesday, Nov. 14, 2012. (AP Photo/Tsafrir Abayov)

  • Columns of smoke rise following an Israeli air strike in Gaza City, Wednesday, Nov. 14, 2012. Palestinian witnesses say Israeli airstrikes have hit a series of targets across Gaza City, shortly after the assassination of the top Hamas commander. (AP Photo/Adel Hana)

  • Columns of smoke rise following an Israeli air strike in Gaza City, Wednesday, Nov. 14, 2012. (AP Photo/Adel Hana)

  • Columns of smoke rise following an Israeli air strike in Gaza City, Wednesday, Nov. 14, 2012. (AP Photo/Adel Hana)

  • Columns of smoke rise following an Israeli air strike in Gaza City, Wednesday, Nov. 14, 2012. (AP Photo/Adel Hana)

CONDICIONES DEL ACUERDO


Israel desea la cesación de los ataques con cohetes y que se ponga fin al envío de armas de contrabando a Gaza, puntos que son más posibles en un acuerdo que tenga como garante a Egipto u a otras partes internacionales. Hamas desea que Israel ponga fin a la eliminación de jefes de la organización y que levante el bloqueo. No obstante las enormes discrepancias, ambas partes están firmemente interesadas en un acuerdo. Traer la tranquilidad a la agobiada zona sur de Israel convertiría a Netanyahu en héroe nacional cuando faltan unas semanas para la realización de las elecciones parlamentarias. Hamas, al que Israel y Occidente consideran un grupo terrorista, ha incrementado su influencia en medio de las revueltas populares que han resultado en la llegada al poder de islamistas en el Mundo Arabe. Un alto el fuego, en particular un acuerdo que tenga garantes internacionales, fortalecería el control de Hamas en Gaza y le daría mayor reconocimiento internacional, aspecto que desea profundamente.


LAS CIFRAS


— Más de 100 palestinos, la mitad de ellos civiles, han perdido la vida, según autoridades médicas palestinas. Tres civiles israelíes han muerto a causa de los disparos de cohetes.


— Israel ha atacado más de 1.350 objetivos en la actual ofensiva, de acuerdo con el ejército israelí. Hamas y grupos armados menores han respondido con el lanzamiento de casi 600 cohetes, según el ejército.


—Israel afirma que con su nuevo sistema de defensa anticohetes "Domo de Hierro" ha derribado más de 300 proyectiles disparados contra el país.

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